Analysis, frameworks, and case studies on demand forecasting, commercial assumptions, business cases, and investment decisions.
Insights
What If the Numbers Are All We Have?
A pre-investment revenue projection can show when money is expected to arrive, but not what will make customers appear. Before leadership believes the numbers, it should understand the business those numbers assume.
Why Good Ideas Don't Get Funded
Great ideas don't get funded because they're great. They get funded because they represent the best investment available at that moment in time. This article explores why compelling ideas are rejected, how corporate risk appetite shapes investment decisions, and what separates an interesting concept from an investable opportunity.
The Distance Between Interest and Revenue
Customer interest can justify further investment, but it is not the same as forecastable revenue. This article examines how weak demand assumptions, overlooked delivery costs, and urgency-driven decisions can distort capital allocation and undermine team credibility.
From AI Pilot to Scaled Investment
A successful AI pilot can demonstrate technical feasibility, but scaling requires a broader investment case. This article examines the additional commercial, operational, and financial evidence needed before an organization commits materially more capital.