Analysis, frameworks, and case studies on demand forecasting, commercial assumptions, business cases, and investment decisions.
Insights
Your Revenue Forecast Is Really a Bet on Customer Behavior
Every revenue forecast assumes customers will behave differently than they do today. The real question is whether the forces behind that change are strong enough to support the business the forecast imagines.
The Distance Between Interest and Revenue
Customer interest can justify further investment, but it is not the same as forecastable revenue. This article examines how weak demand assumptions, overlooked delivery costs, and urgency-driven decisions can distort capital allocation and undermine team credibility.
The Validation Gap: Why Faster Product Development Makes Demand Evidence More Important
AI is making products faster and cheaper to build, but speed does not prove demand. This article examines the gap between technical feasibility and commercial validation—and the evidence companies need before committing further investment.